عنوان مقاله [English]
Hydrologists have always tried to classify atmospheric and hydrologic events in order to simplify the hydrologic convolutions and the observations or to save the time and the budget. Most of these methods are used for the regionalization of hydrologic phenomena like rainfall,streamflow and other components of water cycle.Multivariate techniques have been underlined as suitableand powerful tools for classifying the meteorological data such as rainfall.The karoon river, especially in mountains, is faced big floods, great economic and enviromental damages during recent years. Its hydrologic processes were examined to offer a suitable analysis of its changes trends. In this research, we tried to recognize the data trends and the suitable model of estimating in the future by using Box-cox convert, time series model and helping AIC and BIC indexes.So,we recognize the following models for estimating and suitable trend: ARIMA (4&1) in Shaloo station, ARIMA (2,1,1) * (3,0,3) in Armand station, ARIMA (,0,1) * (3,0,0) * 3 in Barz station and ARIMA ( ,0,0) * (3,1,1) * 4 in Marghak station. Then, we chose statistic period of 2000-2004 as an evidence and recomparing, and we compared data recorded (evidence) and model estimating. However, there was a positive correlatin between data recorded andestimating, we confirmed an upward in the river discharge.