Climate Change Assessment over Iran during Future Decades, Using Statistical Downscaling of ECHO-G Model

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In spite of considerable increase in the resolution of general circulation and regional models, none of these models are capable to predict and downscale the meteorological outputs in the scale of meteorological station.In this regard, different dynamical and statistical models have been developed for downscaling outputs of GCMs. In this paper, grided meteorological outputs of General Circulation Models (ECHAM4 and HadCM2) and 18 IPCC scenarios have been downscaled over Iran for future periods by MAGICC-SCENGEN model. Each period is a 30-years period centered on a year. The range of periods is from 2000 (i.e., 1986-2015) to 2100 (i.e., 2086-2115). Result of HadCM2 model shows a % 2.5 decrease in precipitation until 2100 but ECHAM4 shows a %19.8 increase for this period. Another difference between results of these 2 models is that HadCM2 predicts an increase in precipitation in next decades for Mazandaran, Golestan, Khorasan Shomali, Khorasan Razavi, Semnan, Tehran and some parts of Guilan and Ghazvin provinces, while ECHAM4 predicts a decrease for those regions. HadCM2 predicts precipitation decrease for southeast of country (Hormozgan, Kerman, Bushehr, south of Fars and some parts of Sistan and Baloochestan), but in ECHAM4 those regions will have precipitation increase in similar period. About temperature, both HadCM2 and ECHAM4 agree in temperature increase in next decades for all provinces. These 2 models predict, on the average, 3 to 3.6c increases in temperature until decade 2100. Maximum increase in decadal temperature in ECHAM4 and in 2100 decad is about 1c more than HadCM2 and both of them are in conformity with each other in spatial distribution of decadal temperature.

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